The belligerents are not going to win anything in the long run, thus there is no incentive for a military conflict.
Politically
Whoever shoots first is the initial loser: they lose the hearts and minds of the public across the world. If China does, their international reputation goes down the toilet: no more "peaceful rise" propaganda. If Japan does, they risk major domestic unrest for unilateral reinterpretation of Article 9.
The USA wins: increased militarization in East Asia to contain China and Russia via first island chain strategy and having their two economic rivals beating each other up. The US does not want to see a China-Japan rapprochement.
Militarily
A conflict over the East China Sea will most likely unfold over the disputed airspace, not just around Senkaku Diaoyutai Islands but in the disputed EEZ zone: Shirakaba Chunxiao gas fields. It would be especially bad for China, as they are currently developing those gas fields.
If an air war broke out between China and Japan, which fighter aircrafts will likely be engaged in dogfights? Who would win?
China has better stats.
Japan has better training.
US would arrive to mop up.
The USA wins.
God bless America~
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