If the Manchus had never invaded China in 1644, would Manchuria be an independent country today?

In 1644, the Ming Dynasty was actually overthrown by rebels, who were on the verge of victory. Then the Manchurians persuaded someone to open the Great Wall gate for them, crushed the rebellion and decided to stay. If the Manchurians did not intervene, how post-1644 would look depends entirely on what their neighbours do. 

It would be fair to assume as a Han (ethnicity) dynasty, they wouldn't deviate far from Ming policies, aka expeditions to keep nomadic tribes in check, maintain trade along coastal Manchuria, if profitable. China would likely not invade and occupy Manchuria, hiding behind the Great Wall and trading with Haishenwai (海參崴), and requesting a tributary relationship with the Manchurians. 

Koreans under the Choseon Kingdom were not expansionist, and in our history was actually attacked or even invaded by Manchurians. In this alternate universe, perhaps some or all of Korea would become part of the Manchurian Empire.

Japan under the Tokugawa had recently closed itself: Sakoku (鎖国). It would not care or know what was happening in Manchuria.

The Russian Empire was pushing east very rapidly at this point and would continue for the next two hundred years. And what Russia wants, Russia gets, most of the time. 

So, depending on how strong or weak the Manchurians could be, in most extreme scenarios, they could either eventually be annexed into the Russian Empire likes my other nomadic or native peoples east of the Urals, or takeover Choseon, merging Korean and Manchuria into one dynasty. And it is possible that Manchuria unite or absorb the Mongols into that or a separate empire. 

In history, Manchuria and Mongolia and Tuva were under the Russian sphere of influence, aka if they had not been part of the Chinese Empire already, the Russians would have annexed them upright (and they did, with Outer Manchuria). Independent Tuva and Mongolia and Manchuria would not have the wealth, population, military, or international influence to survive the age of European imperialism. By the time Japan modernized in 1868 (read: ready to be its own Euro-style empire), Manchuria would have been firmly colonized by Russia. A victory in a Russo-Japanese War may only result in ceding of harbours at most, not huge chunks of territory. With more at stake in the Russian Far East, the Pacific Fleet may not be as useless as it was in our timeline, having their much sought-after year-round warm-water port of Port Arthur (大連), so there might not have been a Japanese victory, which might have lead to no Japanese Empire and no WWII Pacific War. In the present day of this alternate timeline, Manchuria might an integral part of Russia, its culture becoming Russified (compare Inner Mongolia's continual use of Mongol script vs Mongolia's use of Cyrillic).

The militant Manchurian scenario would be much more interesting. If it took over Korea and Mongolia, they might be able to avoid annexation from Russia, and maybe be colonized by Russia or Japan in the late 1800s to early 1900s or up to WWII... or maybe not! Strategically located with many natural resources and manpower with lots of access to the sea, this alternate Manchuria might be a very successful buffer state, playing off China, Japan, and Russia up to the modern day.

Apparently, the makers of RISK had thought about this scenario already. So much for an original idea...

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About Chinese not from China

Chinese not from China is an overseas Chinese educated on Chinese history, fluent in two Chinese languages, and raised in Chinese culture. Learn more about me.