China has Flankers and a Euro-canard.
Japan has F-15, F-16, and F-4.
China has better stats.
Japan has better pilots.
US wins.
Assuming that the reason for an "air war" to suddenly "break out" is the disputed islands, then this confrontation would occur over this area:
Rules of engagement and load out will depend entirely on how this "air war" "breaks out". There are two ways: it was intentional or it was accidental.
1. Planned confrontation
...one day we decides those Chinese sons of a bitches are going down!
2. Unplanned confrontation
Do Japanese or Chinese air policing patrols accidentally start shooting each other up? Was it an accidental firing? Was it an act of self-defence, e.g. mistaking a lock as actual live fire? Was it a pilot going rouge? Pilots going rouge? This situation requires further analysis. I am not a professional military analyst, so the following is purely for entertainment.
The Team Roster
In simple terms, Japan has the F-15, F-16, and F-4 at its disposal.
Mitsubishi F-15J (Peace Eagle)
Mitsubishi F-2 (Viper Zero)
Mitsubishi F-4EJ Kai (Phantom II)
China probably has three types of aircraft patrolling its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ): the J-10, Su-30MKK, and the J-11B. The J-15 "Flying Shark" (yes, you read that right, what an epic name), a look-a-like of the Su-33 Flanker-D or "Sea Flanker", is likely not combat operational at the moment, as it is being used for studying aircraft carrier operations.
Chengdu J-10 (Vigorous Dragon)
Sukhoi Su-30MKK (Flanker-G)
Shenyang J-11B (Flanker B+)
The top dogs of Japan and China would be the F-15J and J-11B, and is also the most likely encounter, being the most common air superiority fighter for both teams.
So your question is essentially:
Who would win in a fight between squadrons of F-15 and Su-27 or its variants?
The answer would be very similar to the ones presented in:
Who would win in a fight between squadrons of F-15 and MiG-29?
Namely: it depends on the drivers, their support, their equipment, and rules of engagement, in that order.
On paper, the Su-27 would likely win against the F-15 as it was specifically designed to beat it, whereas the F-15 was designed to beat the MiG-25 that only existed in the imagination of the Americans, not the real one: they thought the Foxbat was way more advanced than anything the US had, but it was really far from the truth.
In reality, the Su-27 (or its variants) never met the F-15 in real combat. But they did meet in mock combat, twice. In 2004, the USAF and the Indian Air Force had a war gaming exercise in India, putting the F-15C against Su-30MK. Background politics and ulterior motives aside, the results were a 9:1 kill ratio in favour of the Flankers. When the Eagles and Flankers met again in 2008 over US airspace, the Eagles did better but the Indians pointed out that the rules of engagement and circumstances handicapped them.
So the Flanker seems to be better than the Eagle, right? Even if that was the case, it is not that simple, as related to this question.
The Japanese Eagle is different than an American F-15 because it has lots of indigenous equipment, customized to their own needs. The USAF is all about global power projection, but the JASDF is all about security of Japanese airspace. The Japanese clearly had ドッグファイト on their minds as their radar and helmet-mounted sights are optimized for close encounters of the dogfight kind. Notably, they do not have the BVR long-range missile AIM-120 AMRAAM in their arsenal, though rumour has it that they are trying to buy them asap.
Similarly, a Chinese Flanker may look like a Sukhoi 27, but it is 90% Chinese. While the USSR and successor Russia still has dreams of global power projection, China is only concerned about security of its own frontiers, including penetration of the US "first island chain" strategy. J-11 designers kept true to the Su-27's air superiority role, as it carries the R-77 BVR missile, the Russian equivalent to the AIM-120. It outranges the Japanese BVR missile, the AAM-4.
Beyond visual range, Team China has the advantage.
The Flanker is right at home in a dogfight: it is a lighter aircraft, has higher climb rate, and can endure higher angle of attack. And theoretically beats the Eagle both by design and during mock combat. However, unlike the USAF, the Japanese had anticipated this and optimized their Eagles for dogfighting, which is apparent in their missile load outs: short to medium range air-to-air missiles. This would be an impressive duel.
In the frantic dogfight bowl, the chance of fratricide is very real without proper IFF (identification friend or foe). As the fighters close in on the merge, both sides will be very reliant on their support, the AWACS. Whichever team is best networked will win the fight.
Japan has four E-767 AWACS, all based out of Hamamatsu, Shizuoka. China has five KJ-2000 AWACS, all based somewhere in southern China (probably Fujian). It is not unlikely for either side to not have AWACS in the area, but if backup is needed (i.e. if the AWACS get shot down), China has a decisive advantage in being much closer to the area of confrontation. In addition to AWACS, the PLAN also benefits from being nearby to provide logistical support compared to the JMSDF.
Within visual range, Team China has the advantage.
The Flanker has bit more internal fuel capacity, which means it has longer loitering time, and more energy to expend during the dogfight. However, the Eagle carries much more rounds for its cannon than the Flanker (940 vs 150), increasing the probability of a hit every time an enemy enters its gunsights.
In a drawn-out fight, it's a coin-toss: 50/50.
While it looks like Team China is going to kick Team Japan's butt, look again: the advantages are very close, even too close to call. Remember the most decisive factor are the drivers? This is not a random Flanker vs Eagle match; this is China vs Japan.
The Japanese and the Chinese are both inexperienced in modern warfare. They just have not fought hot conflicts for the last while. However, as a major participant in WWII fighting a vicious air war, and an advisory position in the Korean War, the Japanese themselves are a wealth of experience. And since then, Japan shares experiences and information via military exercises and war gaming with the best air force in the world, the USAF, which has had more combat experience than any other air force in the world. The Chinese really have no aerial combat experience: the Korean War was their first and currently last air war, and it was over 60 years ago.
Japan probably has "better" pilots than China, the most decisive factor in the match.
Finally, any air confrontation between Japan and China would not just between these two for long. Backup would soon arrive from Kadena AFB in Okinawa (Ryukyu):
Lockheed F-22 (Raptor)
The United States of America has legal obligation to defend Japan, and it doesn't matter who shot first. The USAF will arrive to reinforce the Japanese asap. Their response times are obviously secret, but it will likely be in under 20 min.
Could Flankers beat the Raptor? Maybe in a dogfight, but these F-22 are likely going to engage BVR with their AIM-120 missiles while avoiding detection and the USAF definitely have all the advantages going into such a fight. There is also beyond a doubt that US pilots are more experienced than Chinese pilots.
Who wins?
It seems Team China would win, but the odds of beating Team Japan *and* Team USA seem slim. Also, let me remind you that in 1894, the political and military analysts thought that China would thrash Japan. Reality is always full of surprises.
The military aviation circles win. Big time! We finally get to see a Flanker vs Eagle fight, or even a Flanker vs Raptor fight if we're lucky! Video game studios would also win, especially flight simulators.
The US intelligence community wins. No more speculation about China's ability to mount offensive and defensive operations, specifically aerial ops.
The US military would win. Not only would it get to test its new toy in combat, it would vindicate all the haters saying how expensive air superiority fighters are not needed in a post-911 world.
The US foreign policy would win. First island chain strategy would suddenly make sense to everyone. US bases in Korea and Japan have been targets of controversy for a variety of reasons, but regardless who started shooting first, the US can now silence the haters, saying "look at big bad China. Today air war, tomorrow who knows?! You still want us to leave?! We ain't leavin'!"
For these reasons, and because the matchup would basically be a coin-toss, neither China nor Japan would like to see an "air war" "break out" between them. China and Japan have no incentive to go to war.
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